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Editorial Review:
`Great fun ... brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious,
`Hugely enjoyable - compelling'
`Idiosyncratically brilliant'
`A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected'
`A deeply intelligent, provocative book'
What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? And, why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', "The Black Swan" shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty.
Customer Reviews:
Avg. Customer Rating: 3.5 / 5.0
Like what he says, but not how he says it I think the reviews here probably sum this book up quite well. There is a realtively simple, and as far as I can see, valid point being made, but the book is written in a long-winded, verbose style, which I found very off-putting. I agree with the reviewers who point out that the strongest message to emerge is that the author considers himself to be very, very clever.
For instance, there is a lot of space devoted to discussion of the bell-shaped curve, or normal distribution, which forms the basis... more info
Difficult finding the gold in the dust This book is written by a proud sceptic, who challenges all our assumptions about systems and beliefs in modern science and particularly economics. The author worked in large financial firms, and saw the downfall of current beliefs. He argues strenuously for people to avoid believing in the charlatans, and demonstrates numerous failings of the systems. But he fails to offer a better way so, despite his displayed intellect and thinking prowess, he comes across as a whiner. This is unfortunate, as I... more info
A very important book This is one of the most enjoyable and interesting books I have ever read. I have now read it about 20 times but keep finding something new every time I read it. I have also noticed that now after the credit crunch everything he says has additional meaning though the book itself was written before the credit crunch. I have even noticed politicians and central bankers start talking a bit like he does. We don't know what we don't know and we can only be as prepared as possible or pick up the pieces as well as... more info
Good stuff! This is a very good book. It is thought provoking and works well as a new way of looking at the randomness in the world. A lot of people here have criticized Taleb for displaying a massive ego, and putting forward things that they dont agree with. Indeed, he is very opinionated and forward and I also disagree with some of the things he says (comments about the uncertainty principle mainly) BUT it is much more entertaining to read this way. Ultimately who wants to read a book that just confirms what they... more info
