Partial plagiarism of his central thesis? Reading these reviews leads me immediately to the realisation that this work may possibly be little better than plagiarism. Siméon-Denis Poisson first examined the statistical modelling of low-probability events in 1838, within a much wider corpus of scientific research in pure and applied natural and social sciences. One immediate conclusion is that the probability of low-odds events occurring (where there is no impedement to frequent possible events) is much higher than normal binomial probability... more info
Scintillating One of the most intelligent pieces of writing I have come across in my reading career. It opens up some many new ways of viewing life and its events. Delivered with a delightful touch of arrogance, sudden humour, and iconoclastic precision - the book unearths a paradigm which is so overarchingly pervasive yet consciously ignored by people. The author's tribute to, and coverage of Benoit Mandelbrot, along with the pooh-poohing of the 'normal' model of reality is a salient highlight, and should not... more info
Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition... This book is a black swan because against all the odds it got published. It has one idea swollen unappealingly to almost 400 pages. It is full of stereotypes, rich in "imaginative" anecdotes and insufferably pompous. If you want to read about chance and probability then try Ian Stewart; for Chance and Necessity read Jacques Monod (1972).
most insightful book I've read in a long time Yes, I understand the criticism that Mr Taleb is full of himself - undoubtedly it shows throughout the book.
However, the amount of insights he provides and the many different angles in which he looks at the problem hammers the point through our hard-wired brains, and in my case, provided a fundamental change to the way I think and approach problems.
Definitely, a must read book.
